From the third quarter of 2020, foreign timber, especially North American timber, began to enter the upward channel. At that time, domestic timber merchants were still facing inventory problems, and did not realize that this round of timber epic market had opened. At the same time, in addition to wood, the prices of petroleum, chemical, non-ferrous and other industrial products are also rising quietly.

The price rise of industrial products, including timber, is only an appearance, and the logic behind it is the change of fundamentals and industrial structure. The price of CRB industrial products started an upward trend from April 2020, especially since November last year. First, the production and supply of materials in the middle reaches are restored. Second, the profit of the enterprise is better. Third, there are more factors to stimulate manufacturing investment.

Based on the observation of CRB global price index of industrial products, there have been four rounds of price increases since 2000 (including this round)

1. From the end of 2001 to the beginning of 2008, domestic and foreign demand resonated, and the internal driving force of the economy was strong.

2. From 2009 to the first half of 2011, global stimulus plus quantitative easing, exogenous demand and liquidity superimposed.

3. From 2016 to the first half of 2018, the domestic supply side reform removed the backward production capacity and the supply contracted.

4, since the 2 quarter of 2020, the main manufacturing countries in the world were affected by COVID-19, and production stagnation. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, demand fell, but supply contracted more.

The impact of the gap between production and demand on the current round of industrial product price increase is particularly important. On the one hand, the rapid recovery of production in 2020 will benefit from China's effective epidemic prevention measures; on the other hand, it will result from the limited production and the transfer of export share in other emerging manufacturing countries. Then, the gap between international production and demand is crucial to the sustainability of the current round of industrial price increases.

Then, the gap between international production and demand is crucial to the sustainability of the current round of industrial price increases. According to the forecast of OECD in December 2020, the production gap in 2021 will not narrow significantly, and the shortage of overseas supply will still affect the industrial prices in 2021. Therefore, it is estimated that this round of price increase of industrial products will last for the whole year of 2021.

Due to the increase of domestic and international demand, long industrial investment cycle and limited expansion of timber production capacity in the short term, international timber has maintained a high level. The domestic timber market will maintain low inventory and high price in the short term. Taomu.com will also pay close attention to the trend of international timber market and provide domestic timber merchants with the latest timber price and inventory information.